Hypothesis 2:
Malunion of metacarpal fracture.  The fracture occurred in the same manner as hypothesis 1 however, it healed abnormally causing a valgus deformity of the lower limb.  This abnormal healing could have occurred because of improper placement of fixation devices, allowing the bone ends to come in contact with one another but in an un-anatomical manner(valgus).  This new conformation of the limb caused a stretching of the extensor tendons presenting as thick fibrous bands on the dorsum of the leg. This malunion is complicated by some sort of infection, which is apparent by the exudative draining tracts and the swelling in the leg.  The calf also had an increased respiratory rate, pulse, and temperature which could be due to a systemic infection.  However, the calf is acting fine other than the leg damage so it is more likely an excitement response.